Well, it took a long time to find that password
What a debacle. It took me almost two years to locate not just my password to Blogger but also to find the email I set up to handle the account. Ridiculous.
A lot of the problem was my schedule - how busy I became in Spring 2007, working for one of the most successful political organizations in Texas. But enough about me.
Obama has won a resounding victory, as this site forecast as early as March 2006. Now true, I am more surprised then most that Obama attained victory in the hard fought Democratic primary, but recall that my index is not a predictor of who can win a primary, but rather what an individual candidate's strength will be in the national election.
Some of you may wonder - what was my final rating for the two candidates? A moot point perhaps, but if we were just to leave it at the March 2007 ratings:
BARACK OBAMA - 98
JOHN MCCAIN - 28
It was obvious to me that this race was a foregone conclusion the moment Barack Obama sealed the Democratic nomination.
If I had updated the matchup the night before the contest, I would have amended thus -
OBAMA - 130
MCCAIN - 35
Both men became stronger candidates as the year progressed, but Obama far more so.
What would Hillary Clinton have done against McCain?
CLINTON - 70
MCCAIN - 35
The race would have been only slightly closer and still resulted in a Democratic victory.
So, I suppose I owe everyone some numbers for 2012.
First off, these are very preliminary. But the fact is, it is nearly inconceivable that Obama will be nearly as potent a force as 2012 incumbent as he was 2008 challenger.
If Obama had to face reelection tomorrow though, his WinChoice number would be:
OBAMA - 79
What of his potential foes?
BARBOUR - 85
CRIST - 113
GIULIANI - 40
HUCKABEE - 41
JINDAL - 99
(Peter) KING - 50
PALIN - 103
What to make of this? Only this - that leading is not the same as challenging. It's easy to be the opposition, especially when there is not an incumbent against you and the economy is in bad shape. But the bad economy will be Obama's economy in a few short months, and the memory of voters is short. Obama may not seem as attractive as he did in 2008 and the GOP may not seem as odious to voters.
We will all see!
A lot of the problem was my schedule - how busy I became in Spring 2007, working for one of the most successful political organizations in Texas. But enough about me.
Obama has won a resounding victory, as this site forecast as early as March 2006. Now true, I am more surprised then most that Obama attained victory in the hard fought Democratic primary, but recall that my index is not a predictor of who can win a primary, but rather what an individual candidate's strength will be in the national election.
Some of you may wonder - what was my final rating for the two candidates? A moot point perhaps, but if we were just to leave it at the March 2007 ratings:
BARACK OBAMA - 98
JOHN MCCAIN - 28
It was obvious to me that this race was a foregone conclusion the moment Barack Obama sealed the Democratic nomination.
If I had updated the matchup the night before the contest, I would have amended thus -
OBAMA - 130
MCCAIN - 35
Both men became stronger candidates as the year progressed, but Obama far more so.
What would Hillary Clinton have done against McCain?
CLINTON - 70
MCCAIN - 35
The race would have been only slightly closer and still resulted in a Democratic victory.
So, I suppose I owe everyone some numbers for 2012.
First off, these are very preliminary. But the fact is, it is nearly inconceivable that Obama will be nearly as potent a force as 2012 incumbent as he was 2008 challenger.
If Obama had to face reelection tomorrow though, his WinChoice number would be:
OBAMA - 79
What of his potential foes?
BARBOUR - 85
CRIST - 113
GIULIANI - 40
HUCKABEE - 41
JINDAL - 99
(Peter) KING - 50
PALIN - 103
What to make of this? Only this - that leading is not the same as challenging. It's easy to be the opposition, especially when there is not an incumbent against you and the economy is in bad shape. But the bad economy will be Obama's economy in a few short months, and the memory of voters is short. Obama may not seem as attractive as he did in 2008 and the GOP may not seem as odious to voters.
We will all see!
posted by WinChoice | 10:13 PM
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