January water testing
The two biggest announcements are, of course, Hillary and Obama.
I don't think Obama did a bad job, but he lacked some of the energy and excitement I would have expected. I am keeping him flat in the ratings because he is also being dogged by this weird Internet/Fox News story about his Muslim past. It's fascinating, mostly because it shows how much many Americans despise Islam and also it raises questions about who is pushing this story.
There's two main culprits - the GOP and Hillary Clinton.
Is it the GOP? Well, a lot of the GOP insiders I know chortle about how Obama would be a dream scenario for them in 2008. I don't think the party leadership fears him like they do Hillary and would not like to see him drop out anytime soon. This basically indicates they still have no idea what they are doing in 2008 - Obama is their worst nightmare. Anyway, I wouldn't put it past the GOP to spread this story but it's something they would have waited to do.
Whoever is spreading the story is wanting to eliminate Obama NOW, before he soaks up fundraisers and before the primaries. That indicates to me it's more likely it's Hillary or possibly Edwards.
Anyway, as far as people hopping in the race, there's no surprises here, except maybe Tancredo, who I was writing off in my last post, and Duncan Hunter, who I thought had dropped off the face of the planet or something.
Some people were surprised that Kerry dropped out, but I wasn't. I think we are going to see a lot more Dems drop out as they face the battle of the juggernauts that's shaping up between Hillary, Obama and Edwards. The real challenge now for the Democrats is somehow getting Kerry to abdicate his Senate seat, completely get him out of public life before he makes another "the troops are stupid" gaffe.
One person who won't be dropping out is Bill Richardson - he has a real shot at getting the nomination and he knows it.
Guessing the next Democrat to drop out, I would say Joe Biden. He's going nowhere. And even though he just hopped in, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Chris Dodd decided to bail out too.
Let's talk for a moment about a very interesting development in Texas. Maverick GOP Congressman Ron Paul has announced he will seek the nomination and he is running to win.
Paul is an odd bird. The scuttlebutt I have heard is that the GOP elite burned him after the 2004 elections. Paul was due to receive some choice committee appointments and he was snubbed because he's a libertarian at odds with GOP leadership on issues like medicinal marijuana and the war. So supposedly he's running in the hopes it will help foul things up for more mainstream GOPers like McCain and Romney.
In addition to his traditional libertarian views - many of which I think are a real breath of fresh air for a party that seems to have forgotten it's roots in small government and letting the states be laboratories of democracy - Paul has some decidedly un-libertarian views, like tight border controls and pro-life advocacy.
I think Ron Paul adds up to someone who could do a heck of a lot more damage to the Bush claque of neo-cons and Bible thumping nannies who seem to dominate the party right now. I think Paul will be well-funded for a "fringe" candidate (I know for a fact he has a surprisingly effective national fundraising organization due his long embrace of Libertarian-friendly policies) and has the potential to go into the convention in 2008 with significantly more support that either Tancredo or Duncan Hunter. And in the end, there's a heck of a lot of disgusted conservatives out there who might take a serious look at Ron Paul.
In short - keep your eye on "Dr. No," he speaks to a lot of GOP core constituencies that feel like the mainstream party has really given them the high hat for the last two years.
As such, I rate Paul as a fairly effective, albeit a long shot, potential presidential candidate. If he somehow did get the nomination I think he would probably do about as well as Goldwater did when he was nominated. However, like Goldwater, a Paul nomination would probably pay some real dividends down the road in an election where the Republicans actually had a chance.
Speaking of fringe candidates - expect an announcement any minute now from George Pataki that he is retiring from political life and will not seek any public office ever again.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 98
Wes Clark (AR) 87 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 55 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 49 (+1)
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8
GOP
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 25 (+1)
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20 (+1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 20 (+1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18
Sam Brownback (KS) 19 (+1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Ron Paul (TX) 10 (enters board)
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 6 (-1)
I don't think Obama did a bad job, but he lacked some of the energy and excitement I would have expected. I am keeping him flat in the ratings because he is also being dogged by this weird Internet/Fox News story about his Muslim past. It's fascinating, mostly because it shows how much many Americans despise Islam and also it raises questions about who is pushing this story.
There's two main culprits - the GOP and Hillary Clinton.
Is it the GOP? Well, a lot of the GOP insiders I know chortle about how Obama would be a dream scenario for them in 2008. I don't think the party leadership fears him like they do Hillary and would not like to see him drop out anytime soon. This basically indicates they still have no idea what they are doing in 2008 - Obama is their worst nightmare. Anyway, I wouldn't put it past the GOP to spread this story but it's something they would have waited to do.
Whoever is spreading the story is wanting to eliminate Obama NOW, before he soaks up fundraisers and before the primaries. That indicates to me it's more likely it's Hillary or possibly Edwards.
Anyway, as far as people hopping in the race, there's no surprises here, except maybe Tancredo, who I was writing off in my last post, and Duncan Hunter, who I thought had dropped off the face of the planet or something.
Some people were surprised that Kerry dropped out, but I wasn't. I think we are going to see a lot more Dems drop out as they face the battle of the juggernauts that's shaping up between Hillary, Obama and Edwards. The real challenge now for the Democrats is somehow getting Kerry to abdicate his Senate seat, completely get him out of public life before he makes another "the troops are stupid" gaffe.
One person who won't be dropping out is Bill Richardson - he has a real shot at getting the nomination and he knows it.
Guessing the next Democrat to drop out, I would say Joe Biden. He's going nowhere. And even though he just hopped in, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Chris Dodd decided to bail out too.
Let's talk for a moment about a very interesting development in Texas. Maverick GOP Congressman Ron Paul has announced he will seek the nomination and he is running to win.
Paul is an odd bird. The scuttlebutt I have heard is that the GOP elite burned him after the 2004 elections. Paul was due to receive some choice committee appointments and he was snubbed because he's a libertarian at odds with GOP leadership on issues like medicinal marijuana and the war. So supposedly he's running in the hopes it will help foul things up for more mainstream GOPers like McCain and Romney.
In addition to his traditional libertarian views - many of which I think are a real breath of fresh air for a party that seems to have forgotten it's roots in small government and letting the states be laboratories of democracy - Paul has some decidedly un-libertarian views, like tight border controls and pro-life advocacy.
I think Ron Paul adds up to someone who could do a heck of a lot more damage to the Bush claque of neo-cons and Bible thumping nannies who seem to dominate the party right now. I think Paul will be well-funded for a "fringe" candidate (I know for a fact he has a surprisingly effective national fundraising organization due his long embrace of Libertarian-friendly policies) and has the potential to go into the convention in 2008 with significantly more support that either Tancredo or Duncan Hunter. And in the end, there's a heck of a lot of disgusted conservatives out there who might take a serious look at Ron Paul.
In short - keep your eye on "Dr. No," he speaks to a lot of GOP core constituencies that feel like the mainstream party has really given them the high hat for the last two years.
As such, I rate Paul as a fairly effective, albeit a long shot, potential presidential candidate. If he somehow did get the nomination I think he would probably do about as well as Goldwater did when he was nominated. However, like Goldwater, a Paul nomination would probably pay some real dividends down the road in an election where the Republicans actually had a chance.
Speaking of fringe candidates - expect an announcement any minute now from George Pataki that he is retiring from political life and will not seek any public office ever again.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 98
Wes Clark (AR) 87 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 55 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 49 (+1)
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8
GOP
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 25 (+1)
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20 (+1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 20 (+1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18
Sam Brownback (KS) 19 (+1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Ron Paul (TX) 10 (enters board)
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 6 (-1)
posted by WinChoice | 12:16 PM
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