White House 2008 - The wheat from the chaff
It's time for the WinChoice Presidential Winnability Index great decimation of early 2007.
With heavy heart and merciless keyboard I do now remove three supposed contenders who are not obviously, on some level, seeking the White House. I will also add a few that I have held off on adding because I just couldn't believe they were really going to try to run.
First, the eliminations:
JOHN MURTHA - This corrupt and egotistical old goat actually wanted to seek the nomination as late as mid-2006, according to a well-placed source of mine who closely monitors rust belt states like Pennsylvania. His campaign in 2006, while successful, brought to light a number of ethical issues that have dogged him, including his near involvement in ABSCAM. Apparently Murtha himself became convinced these problems doomed any chance he had to run as an anti-war, war hero, last honest man type candidate. WinChoice bids him adieu, slightly surprised at how strong a candidate he could have been.
HALEY BARBOUR - Woe unto you Republicans. Barbour's apparent lack of interest in 2008 is a sure sign that he doesn't think the GOP can win. And there are few more qualified to make that call than Barbour, an insider's insider, pure politician and a top GOP pulsetaker and handicapper since the 1976 election (when he correctly percieved that Ronald Reagan was the only chance the GOP had). As of Summer 2005 Barbour was actively discussing a White House run with his trusted advisers, but Katrina changed all that, and not because Barbour didn't distinguish himself during that crisis, moreso than any other city, state or national politician affected by it. I'm told he never broached the subject of running in 2008 after Katrina, and when it came up in press conferences or interviews he stressed his only goal was to rebuild coastal Mississippi. Barbour knew Katrina was bad mojo for the GOP long before anyone else did, and I suspect he knows the big GOP dark that began in 2006 will continue on into 2008. Maybe it's a smart bet - by 2012, I think the country will be sick to death of their Democrat congress and presumed Democrat president, and the winds will be ready to blow someone like Barbour into the White House. We'll see, but if he asked me I would say "Run Haley run." The country needs him now, and 2012 is a long way away. Finally, as a loyal Republican and small "c" conservative, let me state for the record what a travesty it is that Haley Barbour isn't running but Sam Brownback is and Mike Huckabee might. Just crazy that the party leaders aren't moving mountains to get Haley in and telling those two pinheads to take a hike.
FRED THOMPSON - Not gonna happen, but in the late 1990s and again in early 2001, when a rumor briefly swept DC that Bush would only serve one term as a way to "heal the nation" from the contested 2000 election, Thompson talked about running nearly constantly, to anyone who would listen, and there were a lot of people who lent him their ear.
Now, here's a quick rundown of some names that I am hearing will probably not run, but I am leaving them on for another few months because, I don't know, something tells me they could be persuaded. And yes, I know at least two of them are really trying hard to look like candidates, and at least one of them has already publicly stated that he probably won't run. But these candidates represent the gamut from insincere protestations to belabored efforts to sound like a serious contender. Any or none of them might run.
Al Gore
John Kerry
Tim Pawlenty
Tom Tancredo
Chuck Hagel
Mike Huckabee
Newt Gingrich
George Pataki
Don't be surprised if half these names either unequivocably remove themselves from discussion or re-stress thieir non-intention to run, probably by Easter at the latest.
Additions - I'm finally getting around to adding Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich to the index, because I was able to stop laughing hard enough to type their names in. Seriously though, Dodd is a great vice presidential candidate, as long as the Democrats decide they don't want to win. Useless vanity cases, both of them.
Wrapup - A lot of candidates are dropping this time because their organization seem inactive, like Huckabee and Wes Clark. Obama is hurting a little but he shouldn't worry. Have I mentioned the White House is his if he wants it? Even Hillary Clinton realizes this, which is why she's dropping. Bad form Hill, attacking your primary opponent so early in the game. You're not a loser are you?
Speaking of bad form - Giuliani looks like a buffoon with his election strategy leaking out. I dunno, he's really not that strong a candidate at all, but the rubes in middle America love him. In the end a lot of Americans just want a just tyrant. It's worth noting that some are saying the leak is "all part of the plan." We'll see.
Finally, Sam Brownback is dropping because he's a fool. Trust me when I say, the worst thing that could happen to his candidacy is that people pay attention to it.
Until next time.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 98 (-1)
Wes Clark (AR) 88 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 54 (-1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 48
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23 (-1)
Joe Biden (DE) 16
John Kerry (MA) 14
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9 (-1)
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8
GOP
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69 (-1)
Tom Tancredo (CO) 45 (-1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31 (-1)
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 24
Chuck Hagel (NE) 19 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18 (-1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 18 (-1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 7
With heavy heart and merciless keyboard I do now remove three supposed contenders who are not obviously, on some level, seeking the White House. I will also add a few that I have held off on adding because I just couldn't believe they were really going to try to run.
First, the eliminations:
JOHN MURTHA - This corrupt and egotistical old goat actually wanted to seek the nomination as late as mid-2006, according to a well-placed source of mine who closely monitors rust belt states like Pennsylvania. His campaign in 2006, while successful, brought to light a number of ethical issues that have dogged him, including his near involvement in ABSCAM. Apparently Murtha himself became convinced these problems doomed any chance he had to run as an anti-war, war hero, last honest man type candidate. WinChoice bids him adieu, slightly surprised at how strong a candidate he could have been.
HALEY BARBOUR - Woe unto you Republicans. Barbour's apparent lack of interest in 2008 is a sure sign that he doesn't think the GOP can win. And there are few more qualified to make that call than Barbour, an insider's insider, pure politician and a top GOP pulsetaker and handicapper since the 1976 election (when he correctly percieved that Ronald Reagan was the only chance the GOP had). As of Summer 2005 Barbour was actively discussing a White House run with his trusted advisers, but Katrina changed all that, and not because Barbour didn't distinguish himself during that crisis, moreso than any other city, state or national politician affected by it. I'm told he never broached the subject of running in 2008 after Katrina, and when it came up in press conferences or interviews he stressed his only goal was to rebuild coastal Mississippi. Barbour knew Katrina was bad mojo for the GOP long before anyone else did, and I suspect he knows the big GOP dark that began in 2006 will continue on into 2008. Maybe it's a smart bet - by 2012, I think the country will be sick to death of their Democrat congress and presumed Democrat president, and the winds will be ready to blow someone like Barbour into the White House. We'll see, but if he asked me I would say "Run Haley run." The country needs him now, and 2012 is a long way away. Finally, as a loyal Republican and small "c" conservative, let me state for the record what a travesty it is that Haley Barbour isn't running but Sam Brownback is and Mike Huckabee might. Just crazy that the party leaders aren't moving mountains to get Haley in and telling those two pinheads to take a hike.
FRED THOMPSON - Not gonna happen, but in the late 1990s and again in early 2001, when a rumor briefly swept DC that Bush would only serve one term as a way to "heal the nation" from the contested 2000 election, Thompson talked about running nearly constantly, to anyone who would listen, and there were a lot of people who lent him their ear.
Now, here's a quick rundown of some names that I am hearing will probably not run, but I am leaving them on for another few months because, I don't know, something tells me they could be persuaded. And yes, I know at least two of them are really trying hard to look like candidates, and at least one of them has already publicly stated that he probably won't run. But these candidates represent the gamut from insincere protestations to belabored efforts to sound like a serious contender. Any or none of them might run.
Al Gore
John Kerry
Tim Pawlenty
Tom Tancredo
Chuck Hagel
Mike Huckabee
Newt Gingrich
George Pataki
Don't be surprised if half these names either unequivocably remove themselves from discussion or re-stress thieir non-intention to run, probably by Easter at the latest.
Additions - I'm finally getting around to adding Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich to the index, because I was able to stop laughing hard enough to type their names in. Seriously though, Dodd is a great vice presidential candidate, as long as the Democrats decide they don't want to win. Useless vanity cases, both of them.
Wrapup - A lot of candidates are dropping this time because their organization seem inactive, like Huckabee and Wes Clark. Obama is hurting a little but he shouldn't worry. Have I mentioned the White House is his if he wants it? Even Hillary Clinton realizes this, which is why she's dropping. Bad form Hill, attacking your primary opponent so early in the game. You're not a loser are you?
Speaking of bad form - Giuliani looks like a buffoon with his election strategy leaking out. I dunno, he's really not that strong a candidate at all, but the rubes in middle America love him. In the end a lot of Americans just want a just tyrant. It's worth noting that some are saying the leak is "all part of the plan." We'll see.
Finally, Sam Brownback is dropping because he's a fool. Trust me when I say, the worst thing that could happen to his candidacy is that people pay attention to it.
Until next time.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 98 (-1)
Wes Clark (AR) 88 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 54 (-1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 48
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23 (-1)
Joe Biden (DE) 16
John Kerry (MA) 14
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9 (-1)
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8
GOP
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69 (-1)
Tom Tancredo (CO) 45 (-1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31 (-1)
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 24
Chuck Hagel (NE) 19 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18 (-1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 18 (-1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 7
posted by WinChoice | 9:04 PM
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