Sen. Bill Frist is a loyal party man (or maybe he just doesn't want to waste his time)
Good news for the GOP today - Sen. Frist has done the right thing and announced he will not seek the presidency. Frist had no chance (he had the lowest rating of any Republican I'm tracking), and his prescence in the race would only have muddied the waters for candidates like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who might actually have a shot in 2008.
If six or seven more potential GOPers dropped out, I might start thinking they actually have a chance in 2008. Then again, maybe Frist, if nothing else a huge political insider, might have just realized the GOP's 2008 position is hopeless.
I think it's likely that the next few weeks will see a real narrowing of the GOP field. If wisdom and strategic thinking ruled the party, I'd say Sam Brownback or Chuck Hagel would bow out next, basically because any current GOP senator is damaged goods right now. GOPer's shouldn't kid themselves - every sitting GOP congressman had a hand in the November blowout, either through their poor political decisions or their lack of leadership. This includes John McCain, whether he knows it or not. But McCain's star power insulates him from some criticism - Hagel and Brownback don't have this luxury.
Now Hagel could play it as a sort of maverick-lite, but again he just doesn't have McCain's zing, name recognition and media-love. Brownback is just out there dangling in the wind, I don't have a clue why this loser thinks he should run for president. Given the way the political winds are blowing in Kansas, he should worry about reelection, not the White House.
However, both Hagel and Brownback have made "I'm running" noises in the last two weeks, so I bet it's at least six months to a year before either makes the decision not to run, unless they just charge ahead to the bitter end.
Given that, my guess is you soon will see Tom Coburn and Mike Huckabee pooh-pooh the loose presidential talk that's been surrounding them for the last two years or so.
I think there's a chance the Democratic field will also narrow soon, probably by the end of the year. I can in fact narrow it by one right now - apparently Russ Feingold recently confirmed he will not run for president. Probably a good call - I don't think he could have pulled it off. It's too bad in a way because I sort of liked Feingold although I disagreed with him on a number of issues. He seemed like a straight shooter. Too bad Obama-Feingold wouldn't really have any regional balance, it would be a real power ticket for the Dems.
I'm removing Frist and Feingold from the index but not making any other changes to the rankings. Look for a new ranking right before the start of the new year, but there's a good chance I will make some posts about potential candidates before then.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 100
Wes Clark (AR) 89
Hillary Clinton (NY) 55
John Edwards (NC) 54
Bill Richardson (NM) 47
Tom Vilsack (IA) 44
John Murtha (PA) 33
Al Gore (TN) 24
Tom Daschle (SD) 20
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Evan Bayh (IN) 15
John Kerry (MA) 14
Mike Gravel (AK) 10
GOP
Condoleeza Rice (CA) 79
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 32
John McCain (AZ) 26
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20
Mike Huckabee (AR) 19
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
If six or seven more potential GOPers dropped out, I might start thinking they actually have a chance in 2008. Then again, maybe Frist, if nothing else a huge political insider, might have just realized the GOP's 2008 position is hopeless.
I think it's likely that the next few weeks will see a real narrowing of the GOP field. If wisdom and strategic thinking ruled the party, I'd say Sam Brownback or Chuck Hagel would bow out next, basically because any current GOP senator is damaged goods right now. GOPer's shouldn't kid themselves - every sitting GOP congressman had a hand in the November blowout, either through their poor political decisions or their lack of leadership. This includes John McCain, whether he knows it or not. But McCain's star power insulates him from some criticism - Hagel and Brownback don't have this luxury.
Now Hagel could play it as a sort of maverick-lite, but again he just doesn't have McCain's zing, name recognition and media-love. Brownback is just out there dangling in the wind, I don't have a clue why this loser thinks he should run for president. Given the way the political winds are blowing in Kansas, he should worry about reelection, not the White House.
However, both Hagel and Brownback have made "I'm running" noises in the last two weeks, so I bet it's at least six months to a year before either makes the decision not to run, unless they just charge ahead to the bitter end.
Given that, my guess is you soon will see Tom Coburn and Mike Huckabee pooh-pooh the loose presidential talk that's been surrounding them for the last two years or so.
I think there's a chance the Democratic field will also narrow soon, probably by the end of the year. I can in fact narrow it by one right now - apparently Russ Feingold recently confirmed he will not run for president. Probably a good call - I don't think he could have pulled it off. It's too bad in a way because I sort of liked Feingold although I disagreed with him on a number of issues. He seemed like a straight shooter. Too bad Obama-Feingold wouldn't really have any regional balance, it would be a real power ticket for the Dems.
I'm removing Frist and Feingold from the index but not making any other changes to the rankings. Look for a new ranking right before the start of the new year, but there's a good chance I will make some posts about potential candidates before then.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 100
Wes Clark (AR) 89
Hillary Clinton (NY) 55
John Edwards (NC) 54
Bill Richardson (NM) 47
Tom Vilsack (IA) 44
John Murtha (PA) 33
Al Gore (TN) 24
Tom Daschle (SD) 20
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Evan Bayh (IN) 15
John Kerry (MA) 14
Mike Gravel (AK) 10
GOP
Condoleeza Rice (CA) 79
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 32
John McCain (AZ) 26
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20
Mike Huckabee (AR) 19
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
posted by WinChoice | 9:48 PM
2 Comments:
Hagel does have some advantages (as David Ignatius pointed out in the Washington Post yesterday) that Senator Brownback doesn't have. He has been arguing for a change in direction for the GOP for a while now. He also has the foreign policy experience that is generally lacking in the Republican field right now.
Grizzly Bear -
My schema for these rankings is semi-secret, but you can usually get some hints by looking at the rankings. For example, the big drops a lot of the GOP candidates took after the elections and upswings for Dems was a reflection of the 2006 midterm results.
A candidate's initial rankings are based on a mixture of some quantifiable stuff I have tracked over the last four presidential elections and my own experience as a professional speechwriter for candidates and elected officials of both parties. I've been a speechwriter for the better part of decade but employed in campaigns for almost 20, everything from marketing candidates to conducting public opinion polling. You can trust my instincts.
One important thing to remember - this is a ranking of how they would do if they get the nomination, not how they will fare in the nominating process. I've given up trying to figure out what motivates voters in primaries, but I will be sharing my thoughts on that as the primaries approach.
You might be interested in http://www.ulmerscale.com/, which tracks Hollywood star's ranking in the pecking order. My ranking system is similar. Note that James Ulmer makes some good coin on his system, someday I hope to make some coin of my own with my system, which is why I don't freely share the internal workings of my system.
If you've looked through the archives, you might note that I never put George Allen on this ranking. It wasn't an unconcious ommission - I knew that loser's Senate seat was in trouble almost 2 years ago, and even if he'd been reelected no one would have taken him seriously as the GOP standardbearer in 2008.
You might also note that George Pataki isn't included on my ranking list, although I am astonished to hear he actually has convinced himself he could be the next president. So I probably will add him soon.
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