WinChoice Presidential Winnability Index

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Location: Austin, Texas, United States

Saturday, November 05, 2005

Murtha may run for president

Out tonight with friends who are well-connected with the Democratic Party of Texas. One has been a major fundraiser with the party for almost 30 years. All of them had heard that upstart Democrat John Murtha had discussed a run for the White House. Also, for whatever it's worth, Matt Drudge mentioned the possibility on his show last Sunday night.

I'm skeptical but not surprised. Murtha is a gregarious and charismatic politician. I view him as the weakest potential Democratic candidate for 2008, but probably not appreciably weaker than Tom Vilsack. But he's benefiting from enormous buzz, and the Iraq issue isn't going anywhere. Murtha could rally the anti-war forces but not frighten hawkish Dems. With three years to go, anything could happen.

Mark Warner really benefited from the Virginia gubernatorial election. I view him as the overwhelming favorite for 2008 - right now.


DEMS

Mark Warner (VA) 87 (+5)
Wes Clark (AR) 78
Hillary Clinton (NY) 46 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 41 (-1)
Bill Richardson (NM) 38
Tom Vilsack (IA) 33
John Murtha (PA) 20

GOP

Condoleeza Rice (CA) 84 (-1)
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MS) 71
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 71
Tom Tancredo (CO) 42
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 30
Fred Thompson (TN) 25
Chuck Hagel (NE) 24
Sam Brownback (KS) 21 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 21
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Mark Sanford (SC) 15
Bill Frist (TN) 12 (-1)