Quick June Post - Winchoice Presidential Winnability Indexfor June 2006
This will have to do for a June 2006 post. I'm extremely busy at my job as a speechwriter and web consultant for a major political organization. But I want to quickly comment on where things stand for 2008's crop of presidential hopefuls.
Most of the potentials from the Senate declined due to their position on immigration that is counter to an emerging left/right consensus on the issue towards more enforcement, increased punishments for knowing employers of illegal immigrants and vastly increased border security. Immigration is bad news for John McCain - this index has always rated him as a middling prospect for the GOP. McCain will continue to slide but soon bottom out, becoming a truly mediocre but possibly electable candidate for them - if nominated. 2008 won't be much easier than 2000. The truth is, McCain has already failed, and I believe will fail again. Immigration is bad mojo for Hillary Clinton too, who is just barely a better candidate than McCain.
It's a poor month for the Dems when the only ones who advance are John Edwards, John Murtha and Al Gore. But all three have consistently kept their names in front of their respective Democratic constituencies.
The GOP is still flailing, but the candidates who represent the best chances for that party to keep the White House are stable.
Check back (hopefully by independence day) for my thoughts on why I believe Haley Barbour, like Wes Clark, is the best choice for his party to nominate in 2008.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 89 (-1)
Mark Warner (VA) 89
Wes Clark (AR) 80
Hillary Clinton (NY) 45 (-2)
John Edwards (NC) 44 (+1)
Bill Richardson (NM) 37
Tom Vilsack (IA) 34
Russ Feingold 22 (-1)
John Murtha (PA) 22 (+1)
Al Gore (TN) 12 (+1)
Tom Daschle (SD) 10
John Kerry (MA) 4 (-1)
GOP
Condoleeza Rice (CA) 82
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 72
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 30
John McCain (AZ) 24 (-1)
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 21 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 20
Sam Brownback (KS) 19 (-1)
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Bill Frist (TN) 10 (-1)
Most of the potentials from the Senate declined due to their position on immigration that is counter to an emerging left/right consensus on the issue towards more enforcement, increased punishments for knowing employers of illegal immigrants and vastly increased border security. Immigration is bad news for John McCain - this index has always rated him as a middling prospect for the GOP. McCain will continue to slide but soon bottom out, becoming a truly mediocre but possibly electable candidate for them - if nominated. 2008 won't be much easier than 2000. The truth is, McCain has already failed, and I believe will fail again. Immigration is bad mojo for Hillary Clinton too, who is just barely a better candidate than McCain.
It's a poor month for the Dems when the only ones who advance are John Edwards, John Murtha and Al Gore. But all three have consistently kept their names in front of their respective Democratic constituencies.
The GOP is still flailing, but the candidates who represent the best chances for that party to keep the White House are stable.
Check back (hopefully by independence day) for my thoughts on why I believe Haley Barbour, like Wes Clark, is the best choice for his party to nominate in 2008.
DEMS
Barack Obama (IL) 89 (-1)
Mark Warner (VA) 89
Wes Clark (AR) 80
Hillary Clinton (NY) 45 (-2)
John Edwards (NC) 44 (+1)
Bill Richardson (NM) 37
Tom Vilsack (IA) 34
Russ Feingold 22 (-1)
John Murtha (PA) 22 (+1)
Al Gore (TN) 12 (+1)
Tom Daschle (SD) 10
John Kerry (MA) 4 (-1)
GOP
Condoleeza Rice (CA) 82
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 72
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 30
John McCain (AZ) 24 (-1)
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 21 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 20
Sam Brownback (KS) 19 (-1)
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Bill Frist (TN) 10 (-1)
posted by WinChoice | 10:50 PM
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