September September
Time for me to butcher an old advertising anecdote. I guess that's appropriate because it's been 10 long years since I have worked in the ad world, and let me tell you, I have no regrets.
Basically the story goes like this. There's a company in trouble. Yjeu go to their ad agency and tell them they need a new campaign. All the kids in the copywriting department put their heads together and come up with this amazingly creative campaign. They take it in to the crusty old president of the company, and he's just disgusted. "Don't give these guys creative. They don't want creative. They just want the goddam sales chart to climb."
Well, it's not much of an anecdote, but the political party that brings it to mind isn't much of a political party. In a few months, barring major economic and foreign policy changes, the Democratic Party is going to take the most favorable electoral environment it's had since 2000 and whiff it. They may tag a weak GOP incumbent or two in the Senate, they may grab a half dozen Congressional seats, but come January 2007 the GOP is still going to be majority party in DC.
Why? It goes back to my anecdote. Voters don't care about passion. They don't care about the poor. They don't care about the little guy. They don't care about union members and free milk for war widows. They don't care if a candidate may or may not have said "nigger" 30 years ago.
To a large degree - and this is a controversial view I hold, but believe me when I say it gives me no joy to hold it - I don't think the voters care about 2 or 3 thousand dead American troops in Iraq. I think deep down the American voter has more in common with Donald Rumsfeld than not, despite what any poll about Rummy's popularity says. They want dead terrorists over there, and if a few thousand Americans die over there, and they can sleep safe at night over here without planes crashing into buildings or jihaddis attacking a grade school or whatever, well, then throw another Marine company on the bonfire.
What else do voters care about? Well, they care about cheap gas, fat mutual fund accounts and a regular paycheck. And the vast majority of voters across the nation have all three.
How do the Democrats pull it out? Well, they probably don't. But there's two Senate races anyway where they may have a chance.
One - Tennessee, where Harold Ford is running basically as a conservative Republican, as near as I can tell. I know nothing about Tennessee politics but it seems like this guy is doing everything right. Anyway, my contacts in TN tell me he won't win, that there's family scandals or something. Whatever - the TN party was smart when they nominated him and I think he's got a chance. But if he wins, it's a lukewarm victory because Ford will have proven the way to win is to run to the right.
Two - Virginia. Again, Webb is a great candidate who's basically running as a hawk who claims he can get us out of Iraq. Good show. Too bad they started playing the "who said nigger" game. I lived in Virginia for a very long year and let me tell you - there's a lot of racists there. Allen seems to be jumping in the polls, probably because a lot of Virginians are bugged by the idea of getting called on the carpet for saying nigger 30 years before. Webb could probably seal this race by coming out and saying "Hey, you know what? I said nigger all the time. Probably every day. It was wrong. I am ashamed of it. I never want to say the word again and I wish no one else would either. If my opponent said it he was wrong, but whatever, it was a long time ago. Can we move on now?" But it's probably too late now, and I'm starting to think Webb is going to blow it too.
What have the dems done wrong? Almost too much to recount. Let's say - Connecticut. Wouldn't it be a gas if the Dems come within one seat and then Lieberman twists the knife by caucusing with the GOP. What about Missouri? You have an lukewarm GOP incumbent - - hey, I know, let's run Claire McCaskell! After all, she's hot off a loss in a statewide race in 2004 to a teenager. How about New Jersey? Let's have our popular incumbent senator run for governor because he's a megalomaniac who thinks he can run for president in 2008. And then let's have him appoint his corrupt crony to the vacant seat! Brilliant!
Anyway, the only thing that turns this around for the Dems is a massive terror attack followed by economic collapse or they catch Bush with a dead girl or a live boy. Or maybe we have to evacuate Iraq. The Dems can expect a few pickups here and there but they will still stink of defeat come November. And I suppose there's a chance it will be 2002 all over again - just a complete route, the Dems end up losing seats. Again, I wouldn't put it past these losers.
What's that? You want something about the 2008 presidential race? Fine. It's Barack Obama's race to lose and if the GOP is smart, they will nominate Haley Barbour. But the GOP isn't much smarter than the Dems - just luckier.
Basically the story goes like this. There's a company in trouble. Yjeu go to their ad agency and tell them they need a new campaign. All the kids in the copywriting department put their heads together and come up with this amazingly creative campaign. They take it in to the crusty old president of the company, and he's just disgusted. "Don't give these guys creative. They don't want creative. They just want the goddam sales chart to climb."
Well, it's not much of an anecdote, but the political party that brings it to mind isn't much of a political party. In a few months, barring major economic and foreign policy changes, the Democratic Party is going to take the most favorable electoral environment it's had since 2000 and whiff it. They may tag a weak GOP incumbent or two in the Senate, they may grab a half dozen Congressional seats, but come January 2007 the GOP is still going to be majority party in DC.
Why? It goes back to my anecdote. Voters don't care about passion. They don't care about the poor. They don't care about the little guy. They don't care about union members and free milk for war widows. They don't care if a candidate may or may not have said "nigger" 30 years ago.
To a large degree - and this is a controversial view I hold, but believe me when I say it gives me no joy to hold it - I don't think the voters care about 2 or 3 thousand dead American troops in Iraq. I think deep down the American voter has more in common with Donald Rumsfeld than not, despite what any poll about Rummy's popularity says. They want dead terrorists over there, and if a few thousand Americans die over there, and they can sleep safe at night over here without planes crashing into buildings or jihaddis attacking a grade school or whatever, well, then throw another Marine company on the bonfire.
What else do voters care about? Well, they care about cheap gas, fat mutual fund accounts and a regular paycheck. And the vast majority of voters across the nation have all three.
How do the Democrats pull it out? Well, they probably don't. But there's two Senate races anyway where they may have a chance.
One - Tennessee, where Harold Ford is running basically as a conservative Republican, as near as I can tell. I know nothing about Tennessee politics but it seems like this guy is doing everything right. Anyway, my contacts in TN tell me he won't win, that there's family scandals or something. Whatever - the TN party was smart when they nominated him and I think he's got a chance. But if he wins, it's a lukewarm victory because Ford will have proven the way to win is to run to the right.
Two - Virginia. Again, Webb is a great candidate who's basically running as a hawk who claims he can get us out of Iraq. Good show. Too bad they started playing the "who said nigger" game. I lived in Virginia for a very long year and let me tell you - there's a lot of racists there. Allen seems to be jumping in the polls, probably because a lot of Virginians are bugged by the idea of getting called on the carpet for saying nigger 30 years before. Webb could probably seal this race by coming out and saying "Hey, you know what? I said nigger all the time. Probably every day. It was wrong. I am ashamed of it. I never want to say the word again and I wish no one else would either. If my opponent said it he was wrong, but whatever, it was a long time ago. Can we move on now?" But it's probably too late now, and I'm starting to think Webb is going to blow it too.
What have the dems done wrong? Almost too much to recount. Let's say - Connecticut. Wouldn't it be a gas if the Dems come within one seat and then Lieberman twists the knife by caucusing with the GOP. What about Missouri? You have an lukewarm GOP incumbent - - hey, I know, let's run Claire McCaskell! After all, she's hot off a loss in a statewide race in 2004 to a teenager. How about New Jersey? Let's have our popular incumbent senator run for governor because he's a megalomaniac who thinks he can run for president in 2008. And then let's have him appoint his corrupt crony to the vacant seat! Brilliant!
Anyway, the only thing that turns this around for the Dems is a massive terror attack followed by economic collapse or they catch Bush with a dead girl or a live boy. Or maybe we have to evacuate Iraq. The Dems can expect a few pickups here and there but they will still stink of defeat come November. And I suppose there's a chance it will be 2002 all over again - just a complete route, the Dems end up losing seats. Again, I wouldn't put it past these losers.
What's that? You want something about the 2008 presidential race? Fine. It's Barack Obama's race to lose and if the GOP is smart, they will nominate Haley Barbour. But the GOP isn't much smarter than the Dems - just luckier.
posted by WinChoice | 10:17 PM
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