John Kerry Added to WinChoice Presidential Winnability Index

A colleague asked me the other day "Hey, why aren't you tracking John Kerry on WinChoice? He's obviously running for president."

Well, WinChoice is my index to predict the possibility that a candidate could win the presidency. But frankly Kerry right now has virtually no chance of ever being president and his WinChoice index shows it. Not to go into excessive technical/statistical details of my model, but having already run and lost for president lowers one's WinChoice rating.

You might say "Hey, you've got John Murtha on, why not Kerry?"

Well, other than the fact that in my view Murtha is almost twice as likely as Kerry to be elected in 2008, I guess I have no defense. So, I'll add Kerry, whatever.

I'm also adding John McCain, not because I thought he had no chance but because up until last week, I had a source in Arizona who told me McCain hadn't decided whether to run. This week he told me that barring health problems McCain has decided to run.

McCain is a popular figure, but would certainly lose in the primary against Barbour, Romney, and I think also Giuliani. McCain would beat Tancredo in a head to head primary fight, but in many ways Tancredo is a more potent national candidate than the Arizona senator.


DEMS

Mark Warner (VA) 87 (+5)
Wes Clark (AR) 78
Hillary Clinton (NY) 46 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 41 (-1)
Bill Richardson (NM) 38
Tom Vilsack (IA) 33
John Murtha (PA) 20
John Kerry (MA) 5 (enters board)

GOP

Condoleeza Rice (CA) 83 (-1)
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MS) 71
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 71
Tom Tancredo (CO) 43 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 30
John McCain (AZ) 25 (enters board)
Fred Thompson (TN) 24 (-1)
Chuck Hagel (NE) 23 (-1)
Sam Brownback (KS) 21
Mike Huckabee (AR) 21
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Mark Sanford (SC) 15
Bill Frist (TN) 11 (-1)