Nothing ever happens in August

The only one who's done anything worth mentioning is Barack Obama. I am just blown away by how smart this guy is, how he can generate press coverage in the dog days of summer. His trip to Africa was a brilliant move that earned him a ton of good press coverage.

In the same time period, we saw events in Israel and Lebanon that will come back to haunt Condoleeza Rice if she ever actually did run for president.

The last bit of major news is the shakeup in the Democratic primary process with Nevada and South Carolina moving up on the calendar. I'm tempted to bump some of the more conservative Dems up, but it's still too early to tell how this will affect the 2008 race.

Look for stuff to really start shaking in September. Until then . . .

DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 90 (+1)
Mark Warner (VA) 88
Wes Clark (AR) 80
Hillary Clinton (NY) 45
John Edwards (NC) 45
Bill Richardson (NM) 37
Tom Vilsack (IA) 34
Russ Feingold (WI) 22
John Murtha (PA) 23
Al Gore (TN) 13
Tom Daschle (SD) 10
John Kerry (MA) 4


GOP

Condoleeza Rice (CA) 81 (-1)
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 73
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31
John McCain (AZ) 24
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 21
Mike Huckabee (AR) 20
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Bill Frist (TN) 10

Winchoice Presidential Winnability Index for JULY 2006 - yes July dammit!

This really is the update for July, and I promise my handful of readers that I will have an update in August.

But these are the dog days. Not much is going to happen in August. Things will pick up in September, accelerate in October, and we will see major movement in November depending on whether the Democrats do well or the Republicans consolidate their control of Congress.

Some of my closest friends are giving me a hard time that I am not on board the doom and gloom train for the GOP. Again - I remain unconvinced in the absence of endemic Senate scandal, economic recession or major losses of US troops in Iraq or Afghanistan - that is to say, some sort of major successful insurgent or Taliban attack resulting in hundreds of dead troops - that the GOP will suffer major losses in the midterm election.

Brief explanations of July's few movers - Warner and Pawlenty move down on minor scandals involving Warner's involvement with the ethically challenged "Kos" and Pawlenty over the sexual shenanigans of his father; Edwards and Giuliani rise due to good performances in polls and obvious activation of 2008 campaigns; Romney raises his stature by showing leadership of the Big Dig debacle. That leadership is all good until his investigation indicates chicanery by his own office or cronies.

DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 89
Mark Warner (VA) 88 (-1)
Wes Clark (AR) 80
Hillary Clinton (NY) 45
John Edwards (NC) 45 (+1)
Bill Richardson (NM) 37
Tom Vilsack (IA) 34
Russ Feingold (WI) 22
John Murtha (PA) 23 (+1)
Al Gore (TN) 13 (+1)
Tom Daschle (SD) 10
John Kerry (MA) 4


GOP

Condoleeza Rice (CA) 82
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 73 (+1)
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69 (-1)
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31 (+1)
John McCain (AZ) 24
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 21
Mike Huckabee (AR) 20
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Bill Frist (TN) 10