Forecast for Presidential Election 2008, April 2006

Well, here's this month's promised post. But there's not much to say about the presidential race. These jokers don't have much going for them, the American people have pretty much had it with them. The Dems are rudderless and stagnating, and the GOP looks beat to hell. But there's one politician who will continue to shine in the immigration fracas (and watch closely the week of May 1, it may well be a nodal point in American history) and that's Tom Tancredo. Funny thing about old Tom, late last month he made some comments to the effect that he was no longer interested in the White House. But I hear that the announcement was all part of his 2006 reelection strategy, and his 2008 plans remain unchanged. The question is, what are those plans? So I am placing him in italics.

You might ask why isn't Condoleeza Rice in italics? Because there's a pervasive view among inner circle GOP types that she could be persuaded to run if there was no other viable candidate.

In any event, the only other movement was Bill Frist, who no longer looks like a leader on immigration, and the only other 2008 item worth commenting on is that things need to start moving for Giuliani and Clinton or within a few months no one will be discussing them as likely candidates anymore.

But I have something to say about 2006. Congressional midterm elections are notoriously dicey, and I have no tested method of forecasting them. However, I will say that I continue to be skeptical that we will see any significant change in the control of the House or the Senate. If this forecast proves to be accurate, I will unveil a new index for the congress shortly after January 2007.

DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 90
Mark Warner (VA) 89
Wes Clark (AR) 80
Hillary Clinton (NY) 47
John Edwards (NC) 43
Bill Richardson (NM) 37
Tom Vilsack (IA) 34
Russ Feingold 23
John Murtha (PA) 21
Al Gore (TN) 11
Tom Daschle (SD) 10
John Kerry (MA) 5


GOP

Condoleeza Rice (CA) 82
Haley Barbour (MS) 79
Mitt Romney (MA) 72 (+1)
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 70
Tom Tancredo (CO) 45
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 30
John McCain (AZ) 25
Fred Thompson (TN) 23
Chuck Hagel (NE) 22
Sam Brownback (KS) 20
Mike Huckabee (AR) 20
Tom Coburn (OK) 17
Bill Frist (TN) 11 (-1)