Democrat's list of presidential contenders keeps narrowing; GOP field refuses to slim down

I've posted several times that one of the only hopes the GOP has is to narrow the field of candidates quickly.

Sadly for them (and the nation) not only do born losers like Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback refuse to drop out, but the Democratic field seems to get smaller with each passing week.

Now Tom Vilsack is out. This is fantastic news for the Democrats. I am aware that there are some conspiracy theories out there that Vilsack was in this race to benefit Hillary, but the simple fact is Vilsack wanted to be president. Obviously he has read the lay of the land and seen the writing on the wall that Hillary and Obama are going to suck up all the energy and money on the Democratic side of the race.

I think Vilsack made a bad choice here. He should have stuck in the race. Obama really has no place to go but down and Hillary is only marginally stronger a candidate. In fact, I think we are seeing the beginning of a long, drawn out political death throes for the junior senator from New York. Politically she's in a pickle when if comes to Iraq - if it gets better there (and it might) the GOP can paint her as a flip-flopping equivicator; if it gets worse (and let's face it, that's probably what's going to happen) she was big supporter of the war who tried to weasel out when the going got tough.

Plus, Obama simply sounds better, looks better, is more inspiring to the Democrat base and has the freedom to stake out whatever position he wishes on the war or anything else because he's not saddled with 8 years in the White House, a philandering and impeached spouse and a full term in the Senate where he pinballed around on whatever issues the focus groups told him were testing well that week.

Making another sound choice is Al Gore, who apparently is also not running. Al may win an Oscar tonight, but the Academy won't be voting in light of his craven attempt to disenfranchise thousands of U.S. servicepeople in the 2000 election - the real reason Gore will never seek elected office again.

Back to the GOP - there is every possibility of an ugly, expensive drawn out primary fight that will terminally compromise whatever candidate ends up at the top of the heap come Summer 2008. It's vital that their field of contenders become smaller and more manageable, immediately.

Ideally, entering the primary season there would only be three or four candidates in the race - logically, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

That would be an enormous strength the GOP candidate could carry with himself through the general campaign season. It really wouldn't matter which candidate it was, the presumed nominee would benefit from enormously enhanced media recognition, fundraising and even emotional benefit from this.

What are the odds of this happening? Well, probably slim. I don't think Giuliani (who seems to be surging) or McCain will drop out until the last delegate has committed. I think Romney is going to be around until at least the first primaries (note I still think he is the strongest GOP right now, but he may not be capable of actually getting the nomination). I think Sam Brownback is in it for the long haul too.

And I'm not even sure we are going to see some big cull here through to the summer. It's terrible news for the GOP that losers like Tommy Thompson, George Pataki, Duncan Hunter and Mike Huckabee are mucking around soaking up money and media attention.

I tell every GOPer I know that one of their only hopes is to unify quickly around a candidate, whoever it is.

Towards that end, GOPers, especially supporters of the big three (McCain, Giuliani, Romney) should exert public opinion pressure and call for assumed candidates like Brownback, Hunter and Hagel to drop out NOW.

Realistically, Mike Huckabee seems like a great first choice for a grassroots "please drop out" campaign. He's already expressing public doubts about running, claiming he will make a decision within six months. Unfortunately, he's also picking up some endorsements and appears to be actively campaigning again. But it's vital that loyal GOPers let Huckabee know it's time to "slim down" the Republican field - hey, that's language Huckabee should understand.

If you're interested in joining my movement to persuade Mike Huckabee to drop out, you can contact his non-campaign here. I would drop them a line and tell them that you don't believe there's any chance he could win the election even if he attained the nomination, and that the sooner he drops out, the better for the party in 2008. You can even steal my "slim down" line.

Hopefully we will be successful, and then could turn our attention to Sam Brownback. I do think Pataki will drop out very soon, if he hasn't already. Who knows? There's so much dead air coming from his direction he could announce his withdrawal and there's every chance no one would pay any attention to that either.

Anyway, other than the "losses" to the Democratic side, not much is happening on my board. The lay of the land is what it is. I do think the big story of the pre-primary season will end up being Hillary's impending implosion. Other than that, Giuliani is solidifying his support and silencing the naysayers. A number of potential candidates continue to nose down because they aren't officially jumping in the race.

Until next time . . .


DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 98
Wes Clark (AR) 86 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 54 (-1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 49
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Christopher Dodd (CT) 10 (-1)
Mike Gravel (AK) 9
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8


GOP

Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 68 (-1)
Tom Tancredo (CO) 45 (-1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 32 (+1)
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 24 (-1)
Chuck Hagel (NE) 19 (-1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 20
Sam Brownback (KS) 19
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18
Frank Keating (OK) 16 (-1)
Tom Coburn (OK) 15 (-1)
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Ron Paul (TX) 10
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 5 (-1)