January water testing

The two biggest announcements are, of course, Hillary and Obama.

I don't think Obama did a bad job, but he lacked some of the energy and excitement I would have expected. I am keeping him flat in the ratings because he is also being dogged by this weird Internet/Fox News story about his Muslim past. It's fascinating, mostly because it shows how much many Americans despise Islam and also it raises questions about who is pushing this story.

There's two main culprits - the GOP and Hillary Clinton.

Is it the GOP? Well, a lot of the GOP insiders I know chortle about how Obama would be a dream scenario for them in 2008. I don't think the party leadership fears him like they do Hillary and would not like to see him drop out anytime soon. This basically indicates they still have no idea what they are doing in 2008 - Obama is their worst nightmare. Anyway, I wouldn't put it past the GOP to spread this story but it's something they would have waited to do.

Whoever is spreading the story is wanting to eliminate Obama NOW, before he soaks up fundraisers and before the primaries. That indicates to me it's more likely it's Hillary or possibly Edwards.

Anyway, as far as people hopping in the race, there's no surprises here, except maybe Tancredo, who I was writing off in my last post, and Duncan Hunter, who I thought had dropped off the face of the planet or something.

Some people were surprised that Kerry dropped out, but I wasn't. I think we are going to see a lot more Dems drop out as they face the battle of the juggernauts that's shaping up between Hillary, Obama and Edwards. The real challenge now for the Democrats is somehow getting Kerry to abdicate his Senate seat, completely get him out of public life before he makes another "the troops are stupid" gaffe.

One person who won't be dropping out is Bill Richardson - he has a real shot at getting the nomination and he knows it.

Guessing the next Democrat to drop out, I would say Joe Biden. He's going nowhere. And even though he just hopped in, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Chris Dodd decided to bail out too.

Let's talk for a moment about a very interesting development in Texas. Maverick GOP Congressman Ron Paul has announced he will seek the nomination and he is running to win.

Paul is an odd bird. The scuttlebutt I have heard is that the GOP elite burned him after the 2004 elections. Paul was due to receive some choice committee appointments and he was snubbed because he's a libertarian at odds with GOP leadership on issues like medicinal marijuana and the war. So supposedly he's running in the hopes it will help foul things up for more mainstream GOPers like McCain and Romney.

In addition to his traditional libertarian views - many of which I think are a real breath of fresh air for a party that seems to have forgotten it's roots in small government and letting the states be laboratories of democracy - Paul has some decidedly un-libertarian views, like tight border controls and pro-life advocacy.

I think Ron Paul adds up to someone who could do a heck of a lot more damage to the Bush claque of neo-cons and Bible thumping nannies who seem to dominate the party right now. I think Paul will be well-funded for a "fringe" candidate (I know for a fact he has a surprisingly effective national fundraising organization due his long embrace of Libertarian-friendly policies) and has the potential to go into the convention in 2008 with significantly more support that either Tancredo or Duncan Hunter. And in the end, there's a heck of a lot of disgusted conservatives out there who might take a serious look at Ron Paul.

In short - keep your eye on "Dr. No," he speaks to a lot of GOP core constituencies that feel like the mainstream party has really given them the high hat for the last two years.

As such, I rate Paul as a fairly effective, albeit a long shot, potential presidential candidate. If he somehow did get the nomination I think he would probably do about as well as Goldwater did when he was nominated. However, like Goldwater, a Paul nomination would probably pay some real dividends down the road in an election where the Republicans actually had a chance.

Speaking of fringe candidates - expect an announcement any minute now from George Pataki that he is retiring from political life and will not seek any public office ever again.


DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 98
Wes Clark (AR) 87 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 55 (+1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 49 (+1)
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23
Joe Biden (DE) 16
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8


GOP

Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69
Tom Tancredo (CO) 46 (+1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 25 (+1)
Chuck Hagel (NE) 20 (+1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 20 (+1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18
Sam Brownback (KS) 19 (+1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Ron Paul (TX) 10 (enters board)
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 6 (-1)

White House 2008 - The wheat from the chaff

It's time for the WinChoice Presidential Winnability Index great decimation of early 2007.

With heavy heart and merciless keyboard I do now remove three supposed contenders who are not obviously, on some level, seeking the White House. I will also add a few that I have held off on adding because I just couldn't believe they were really going to try to run.

First, the eliminations:

JOHN MURTHA - This corrupt and egotistical old goat actually wanted to seek the nomination as late as mid-2006, according to a well-placed source of mine who closely monitors rust belt states like Pennsylvania. His campaign in 2006, while successful, brought to light a number of ethical issues that have dogged him, including his near involvement in ABSCAM. Apparently Murtha himself became convinced these problems doomed any chance he had to run as an anti-war, war hero, last honest man type candidate. WinChoice bids him adieu, slightly surprised at how strong a candidate he could have been.

HALEY BARBOUR - Woe unto you Republicans. Barbour's apparent lack of interest in 2008 is a sure sign that he doesn't think the GOP can win. And there are few more qualified to make that call than Barbour, an insider's insider, pure politician and a top GOP pulsetaker and handicapper since the 1976 election (when he correctly percieved that Ronald Reagan was the only chance the GOP had). As of Summer 2005 Barbour was actively discussing a White House run with his trusted advisers, but Katrina changed all that, and not because Barbour didn't distinguish himself during that crisis, moreso than any other city, state or national politician affected by it. I'm told he never broached the subject of running in 2008 after Katrina, and when it came up in press conferences or interviews he stressed his only goal was to rebuild coastal Mississippi. Barbour knew Katrina was bad mojo for the GOP long before anyone else did, and I suspect he knows the big GOP dark that began in 2006 will continue on into 2008. Maybe it's a smart bet - by 2012, I think the country will be sick to death of their Democrat congress and presumed Democrat president, and the winds will be ready to blow someone like Barbour into the White House. We'll see, but if he asked me I would say "Run Haley run." The country needs him now, and 2012 is a long way away. Finally, as a loyal Republican and small "c" conservative, let me state for the record what a travesty it is that Haley Barbour isn't running but Sam Brownback is and Mike Huckabee might. Just crazy that the party leaders aren't moving mountains to get Haley in and telling those two pinheads to take a hike.

FRED THOMPSON - Not gonna happen, but in the late 1990s and again in early 2001, when a rumor briefly swept DC that Bush would only serve one term as a way to "heal the nation" from the contested 2000 election, Thompson talked about running nearly constantly, to anyone who would listen, and there were a lot of people who lent him their ear.

Now, here's a quick rundown of some names that I am hearing will probably not run, but I am leaving them on for another few months because, I don't know, something tells me they could be persuaded. And yes, I know at least two of them are really trying hard to look like candidates, and at least one of them has already publicly stated that he probably won't run. But these candidates represent the gamut from insincere protestations to belabored efforts to sound like a serious contender. Any or none of them might run.

Al Gore
John Kerry
Tim Pawlenty
Tom Tancredo
Chuck Hagel
Mike Huckabee
Newt Gingrich
George Pataki

Don't be surprised if half these names either unequivocably remove themselves from discussion or re-stress thieir non-intention to run, probably by Easter at the latest.

Additions - I'm finally getting around to adding Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich to the index, because I was able to stop laughing hard enough to type their names in. Seriously though, Dodd is a great vice presidential candidate, as long as the Democrats decide they don't want to win. Useless vanity cases, both of them.

Wrapup - A lot of candidates are dropping this time because their organization seem inactive, like Huckabee and Wes Clark. Obama is hurting a little but he shouldn't worry. Have I mentioned the White House is his if he wants it? Even Hillary Clinton realizes this, which is why she's dropping. Bad form Hill, attacking your primary opponent so early in the game. You're not a loser are you?

Speaking of bad form - Giuliani looks like a buffoon with his election strategy leaking out. I dunno, he's really not that strong a candidate at all, but the rubes in middle America love him. In the end a lot of Americans just want a just tyrant. It's worth noting that some are saying the leak is "all part of the plan." We'll see.

Finally, Sam Brownback is dropping because he's a fool. Trust me when I say, the worst thing that could happen to his candidacy is that people pay attention to it.

Until next time.


DEMS

Barack Obama (IL) 98 (-1)
Wes Clark (AR) 88 (-1)
Hillary Clinton (NY) 54 (-1)
John Edwards (NC) 55
Bill Richardson (NM) 48
Tom Vilsack (IA) 45
Al Gore (TN) 23 (-1)
Joe Biden (DE) 16
John Kerry (MA) 14
Christopher Dodd (CT) 11
Mike Gravel (AK) 9 (-1)
Dennis Kucinich (OH) 8


GOP

Mitt Romney (MA) 74
Tim Pawlenty (MN) 69 (-1)
Tom Tancredo (CO) 45 (-1)
Rudy Giuliani (NY) 31 (-1)
John McCain (AZ) 26
James Gilmore (VA) 24
Chuck Hagel (NE) 19 (-1)
Mike Huckabee (AR) 18 (-1)
Duncan Hunter (CA) 19
Sam Brownback (KS) 18 (-1)
Frank Keating (OK) 17
Tom Coburn (OK) 16
Newt Gingrich (GA) 11
Tommy Thompson (WI) 10
George Pataki (NY) 7